In this FlagOh preview, our Green Bay vs Detroit prediction points to a 31–24 Lions win that covers the -3 spread. Detroit’s 29.6 points per game at home and Green Bay’s 4–7–0 ATS stretch tilt the numbers toward the Lions, while the NFC North race, Thanksgiving history, and this year’s throwback-vs-white jersey matchup give the game extra weight beyond the box score.
Green Bay vs Detroit Prediction With Key Stats And Odds
Before you decide how you feel about this matchup, let’s look at the raw numbers the way we’d break them down at FlagOh. The Lions have transformed Ford Field into a fortress in 2025, while Green Bay has struggled to find consistency on the road.
In short:
- Detroit has the more explosive offense and stronger overall SRS profile.
- Green Bay boasts the better scoring defense and already has a two-score win over Detroit this season.
- The rivalry itself has been tight in recent years: Detroit is 6–4 vs Green Bay over the last five years, including multiple high-scoring shootouts.
This is exactly the kind of split profile that makes a Green Bay vs Detroit prediction tricky: one team has the better offense, the other has the better defense, and head-to-head momentum is split across different time windows.
Data note: All team stats in this table reflect regular-season performance through Week 12 of 2025, using widely available league data from official NFL box scores and advanced metrics like Simple Rating System (SRS).
Current Green Bay vs Detroit Odds
Current market numbers for Thanksgiving (lines may move; always check a regulated operator close to kickoff) are roughly:
- Spread: Lions -3
- Total (Over/Under): 48.5
- Moneyline: Lions roughly -145, Packers around +125 at many books.
Those are tight, respectful numbers for both sides, and they tell you that oddsmakers see Detroit as the slightly better team right now, but not by a huge margin.
Spread & Moneyline
Feature: Lions -3 at home, indoors, with one of the league’s top-scoring offenses (29.6 PPG).
Advantages:
- Detroit scores almost a touchdown more per game than Green Bay, and they just hung 34 on the Giants with 546 total yards of offense.
- Jared Goff has 2,769 passing yards, 23 TDs, and only 5 INTs this season—firmly in top-tier QB territory.
- Ford Field’s controlled conditions typically help efficient passing offenses more than visiting defenses, especially when the crowd noise makes protection checks harder.
Benefits (for prediction, not advice):
From a prediction standpoint, a modest field-goal favorite is exactly what you’d expect when a top-2 scoring offense plays at home against a very good defense. If you believe Detroit’s offense is real and not just schedule-driven, -3 implies a one-score game that Detroit should edge more often than not.
Risks and what the numbers don’t show:
- Green Bay already beat Detroit once this season, 27–13, thanks in part to Micah Parsons’ debut and a defense that kept Gibbs and Montgomery under 50 combined rushing yards.
- The Packers allow only 18.4 points per game, 5th best in the league, and rank top-5 in both passing and rushing defense.
- Turnovers swing Thanksgiving games dramatically; Jared Goff’s worst Lions stretches (including a 2023 Turkey Day loss to Green Bay) came when pressure created strip-sacks and short fields.
Data-backed lean:
With Detroit’s current offensive ceiling and home-field edge, the numbers slightly favor the Lions to win by more than a field goal. For prediction purposes, this leans Lions (-3)—but only with the understanding that Green Bay’s defense is good enough to keep this in “one big mistake either way” territory.
Responsible note: Odds move quickly, and nothing in this article is betting advice. Always treat lines as information, not guarantees, and follow local laws if you choose to wager.
Over/Under Projection
Feature: Total set at 48.5 points, implying something like a 26–23 type game.
Why the Over makes sense on paper:
- Lions games average 51.7 total points (29.6 scored, 22.1 allowed).
- Packers games average 42.3 total points (23.9 scored, 18.4 allowed), but Green Bay’s offense has trended up in recent weeks while still playing stout defense.
- In the last five Lions–Packers matchups, Detroit has averaged 27.0 points and Green Bay 20.2, with the total going over in about 60% of those games.
- The game is indoors, which typically reduces weather noise: no wind, no snow, no freezing rain forcing both teams into predictable run-heavy scripts.
Why the Under is still live:
- Green Bay’s defense is built to limit explosive plays, ranking top-5 in points allowed and top-7 against both run and pass.
- If the Packers’ offensive game plan emphasizes long, balanced drives to keep Detroit off the field, you could see more 10–12 play possessions that chew the clock and reduce total drives.
Data-backed lean:
When you weigh Detroit’s scoring rate, both teams’ recent form, and the indoor setting, a slight lean to the Over makes sense for prediction purposes—something in the low-50s feels more likely than a slog in the low-40s, as long as both QBs stay on script.
Green Bay vs Detroit Thanksgiving History And Trends
Green Bay vs Detroit on Thanksgiving carries its own storyline separate from the weekly schedule. To see where this year fits, it helps to step back from the odds and look at how the records and recent momentum have shifted over time.
Thanksgiving Records And Curse
You can’t talk about Green Bay vs Detroit history without acknowledging the Lions’ complicated relationship with Thanksgiving.
- Detroit has appeared in 86 Thanksgiving games, more than any team, with a record of 37–45–2.
- Green Bay has played 39 Thanksgiving games and is 16–20–2 overall, including 9–12–1 vs Detroit on the holiday.
Because so many of Detroit’s Thanksgiving losses came during down eras for the franchise, fans and media occasionally talk about a “Thanksgiving curse.” A more grounded reading is simple: teams that aren’t very good lose a lot of nationally televised games, especially to strong Packers squads of the Favre and Rodgers eras.
The recent decade looks different. With Goff under center and Dan Campbell on the sideline, Detroit has turned into a serious NFC contender, winning division titles and finally posting winning records at Ford Field. That shift is exactly why this prediction feels less like the old “Lions try to survive” script and more like a coin flip between two playoff-caliber rosters.
Recent Matchup Trends
Zooming into the modern rivalry:
- Over the last five meetings, the Lions are 3–2 vs the Packers and have often pushed games into high-20s or low-30s scorelines.
- The Packers won the most recent meeting on September 7, 2025, 27–13 at Lambeau, powered by Jordan Love’s efficient day and Micah Parsons’ disruptive debut.
- In 2024, Detroit beat Green Bay 34–31 on a walk-off field goal to extend an 11-game winning streak, showing they can win a shootout against this same core.
- Detroit also handled Green Bay 24–14 at Lambeau in a rainy 2024 game, with Goff operating efficiently and Jahmyr Gibbs sealing things on the ground.
Taken together, the recent sample argues for:
- Closer games than the historic series suggests.
- More scoring than older, run-heavy Lions–Packers clashes—deciding plays come more often through big passing plays and explosive runs than 13–10 defensive grinders.
That’s part of why oddsmakers are happy to hang a total near 48.5 and let the market decide which version of this rivalry shows up.
Key Positional Matchups & Player Props
This section isn’t about telling you what to bet; it’s about highlighting the specific on-field battles that will push your Green Bay vs Detroit prediction one way or the other.
Quarterback Duel – Jordan Love vs Jared Goff
Jordan Love, Packers:
- 2025 season: 2,573 passing yards, 16 TD, 3 INT, 68.0% completions, 103.0 passer rating through Week 12.
- Operates behind an offensive line that’s protected him well enough to keep sacks and hits manageable, and he’s already led Green Bay to a 7–3–1 record in a tight NFC North.
Jared Goff, Lions:
- 2025 season: 2,769 passing yards, 23 TD, 5 INT—top-10 in yards and near the league lead in touchdown passes.
- Over his career vs Green Bay, Goff owns a passer rating around 100 with 17 TDs to 5 INTs in 10 games, showing he’s more comfortable in this rivalry than early narratives suggested.
Ford Field’s dome favors precise timing routes, and both QBs can take advantage. Goff has a longer track record in shootouts, but Love brings a higher athletic ceiling outside structure. In a one-game sample, that means:
- If Green Bay protects well, Love’s intermediate passing and movement can stress Detroit’s secondary, especially with the Lions missing All-Pro safety Kerby Joseph for this game.
- If Detroit’s rush wins on early downs, Goff can attack off play-action and stay in favorable down-and-distance, where he’s been lethal all year.
From a prediction standpoint, this matchup is close to a wash, with a tiny edge to Goff due to continuity and supporting cast.
The Trenches – Jahmyr Gibbs vs Green Bay Run Defense
Jahmyr Gibbs’ breakout:
- Gibbs has been one of the league’s most explosive backs in 2025, already near the top of the rushing leaderboards and in double digits for rushing touchdowns.
- In the last two weeks alone, he’s racked up 142 rushing yards and three TDs vs Washington, and then 264 total yards and three TDs vs the Giants, including a 69-yard walk-off run in overtime.
Green Bay’s run defense:
- Allows just 96.5 rushing yards per game, top-10 in the league.
- Schematically built to spill runs outside toward fast linebackers and safeties, making it hard for backs to dominate on volume alone.
Why this matters for props and prediction:
- If Gibbs consistently wins early downs (4–6 yards on first and second), Detroit can stay ahead of the chains, keep the full playbook open, and reduce obvious pass-rush situations for Parsons & Co.
- If Green Bay forces 2nd-and-8, 3rd-and-7 repeatedly, their coverage and pressure packages can key off Goff’s pre-snap tells and force the occasional negative play or turnover.
Even if you’re not touching player props, this is the matchup to watch if you want to know whether the game is tilting toward a comfortable Detroit script or a tense, Green Bay-friendly slugfest.
Lions Throwbacks And Packers White Visual Matchup
Thanksgiving is almost as much about how the game looks as how it plays, and 2025 leans into that hard. Detroit is rolling out its classic throwback look again—Honolulu blue jerseys, silver helmets without modern logos, and silver pants that echo the franchise’s early decades. The NFL’s relaxed one-helmet rule lets them bring this full throwback set back spotlight on dates like Thanksgiving.
As the road team, Green Bay is expected to stick with its classic white jerseys with green numerals, gold trim, and the iconic gold helmet. The silhouette has barely changed in decades, which is exactly why it pairs so cleanly against Detroit’s stripped-back blue-and-silver.
From a visual standpoint, you get:
- Strong contrast: blue vs white, silver vs gold
- Super clear jersey separation on TV and in photos
- A natural “heritage game” feel that fits a family-heavy holiday window
At FlagOh, we pay close attention to how rivalries live on in uniforms, throwbacks, and wall décor, not just in the final score. For anyone thinking in terms of rivalry décor—posters, wall banners, or half-and-half flags from creators and brands like our shop—this is a dream pairing: one side saturated color, the other mostly white with bold accents, easy to split into clean 50/50 layouts.
Fans love to treat certain uniforms as lucky, but most of the “throwback curse” talk comes from stretches when the Lions simply weren’t very good. In the current era, Detroit has proved it can win big games at home in both standard and alternate looks; the uniform is more about identity and how the rivalry lives on in photos and design. That’s why a lot of fan creators lean on this throwback-vs-white contrast when they sketch Green Bay–Detroit layouts for long-term flags and wall art.
Green Bay vs Detroit Lions Live Viewing Guide
If your search is closer to ‘Green Bay vs Detroit Lions live’ than to ‘advanced EPA tables,’ here’s the practical info you actually need.
Kickoff & TV:
- Date: Thursday, November 27, 2025 (Thanksgiving – NFL Week 13).
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET / 10:00 a.m. PT/noon CT.
- TV channel (U.S.): FOX as part of the Thanksgiving Classic.
Streaming options:
- You can stream Lions vs Packers for free on Tubi or via FOX-owned streaming options like Fox One in many markets.
- Live TV streaming services that carry FOX—such as YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV, and Fubo—will also show the game where local rights allow.
- Mobile-only viewing is available on NFL+ in supported regions.
Radio & audio: Local radio broadcasts are available via the Packers Radio Network and Lions’ regional partners, and national audio feeds run through SiriusXM and Westwood One.
When you put the stats, recent form, Thanksgiving history, and key matchups side by side, this Green Bay vs Detroit prediction still leans toward a home win. The Packers are dangerous enough to keep this in one-score territory, but Detroit’s scoring punch at Ford Field and the way Goff, Gibbs, and the Lions’ offense match up with Green Bay’s defense tilt the script toward the home side, so a realistic final score call is Detroit Lions 31, Green Bay Packers 24. This is a data-driven prediction, not betting advice, but it gives you a clear picture of how the matchup stacks up. And if you care as much about how this rivalry looks as how it ends on the scoreboard, FlagOh is a smart place to dive deeper into NFL uniforms, throwbacks, and fan gear before you decide how you want this matchup to live on in your own space.